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ISBN: 9780691091945

Über dieses Produkt

Product Identifiers

Publisher

Princeton University Press

ISBN-10

0691091943

ISBN-13

9780691091945

eBay Product ID (ePID)

2313455

Product Key Features

Number of Pages

352 Pages

Language

English

Publication Name

Triumph of the Optimists : 101 Years of Global Investment Returns

Publication Year

2002

Subject

Investments & Securities / General

Type

Textbook

Subject Area

Business & Economics

Author

Elroy Dimson, Mike Staunton, Paul Marsh

Format

Hardcover

Dimensions

Item Height

1.5 in

Item Weight

52.1 Oz

Item Length

11.2 in

Item Width

8.7 in

Additional Product Features

Intended Audience

College Audience

LCCN

2001-095814

Reviews

A model of how investor research should be carried out. . . . Like most great books,Triumph of the Optimistshas us saying 'Wow!' and 'Unbelievable!' with startling regularity. . . . This is a book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf. -- Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner, "Money" columnists, msn.com, Our favorite book on global stock market performance. . . . [It] epitomizes outstanding investment research. . . . Unless intelligent life is discovered on another planet and a stock market is found to have been operating there for some centuries, it is unlikely that much new data can be brought to bear on the issue of long-run stock returns. Triumph of the Optimists may well be the last word on the subject for some time to come., "Connoisseurs of financial history will find plenty to enjoy in Triumph of the Optimists . . . . The evidence produced by Mr. Dimson and his colleagues is striking. . . . A provocative lesson." ---Matthew Lynn, Financial Times, By far the most important investment book in years. . . .It is the best and most complete source of data yet available. . . . If you spend an hour with it and don't learn anything worth the price then you're truly lousy at learning about markets. . . Right now, buying this book makes more sense than buying stocks. -- Ken Fisher, Bloomberg Money, "By far the most important investment book in years. . . . It is the best and most complete source of data yet available. . . . If you spend an hour with it and don't learn anything worth the price then you're truly lousy at learning about markets. . . . Right now, buying this book makes more sense than buying stocks." ---Ken Fisher, Bloomberg Money, "By far the most important investment book in years. . . .It is the best and most complete source of data yet available. . . . If you spend an hour with it and don't learn anything worth the price then you're truly lousy at learning about markets. . . Right now, buying this book makes more sense than buying stocks."-- Ken Fisher, Bloomberg Money, At the very least, this [book] suggests that the recent blind adherence to the cult of the equity needs to be questioned and that the strategic weighting of bonds in institutional portfolios should be increased. -- Philip Coggan, Financial Times, "At the very least, this [book] suggests that the recent blind adherence to the cult of the equity needs to be questioned and that the strategic weighting of bonds in institutional portfolios should be increased."-- Philip Coggan, Financial Times, "A model of how investor research should be carried out. . . . Like most great books, Triumph of the Optimists has us saying 'Wow!' and 'Unbelievable!' with startling regularity. . . . This is a book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf."-- Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner, "Money" columnists, msn.com, "A model of how investor research should be carried out. . . . Like most great books, Triumph of the Optimists has us saying 'Wow!' and 'Unbelievable!' with startling regularity. . . . This is a book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf." ---Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner, MSN.com, "Connoisseurs of financial history will find plenty to enjoy in Triumph of the Optimists . . . . The evidence produced by Mr. Dimson and his colleagues is striking, [and]. . . these issues are more than just academic. . . . A provocative lesson." --Matthew Lynn, Financial Times, Our favorite book on global stock market performance. . . . [It] epitomizes outstanding investment research. . . . Unless intelligent life is discovered on another planet and a stock market is found to have been operating there for some centuries, it is unlikely that much new data can be brought to bear on the issue of long-run stock returns. Triumph of the Optimists may well be the last word on the subject for some time to come. -- Active Trader magazine, A model of how investor research should be carried out. . . . Like most great books, Triumph of the Optimists has us saying 'Wow!' and 'Unbelievable!' with startling regularity. . . . This is a book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf. -- Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner, "Money" columnists, msn.com, "[ Triumph of the Optimists ] suggests that the recent blind adherence to the cult of the equity needs to be questioned and that the strategic weighting of bonds in institutional portfolios should be increased." ---Philip Coggan, Financial Times, Connoisseurs of financial history will find plenty to enjoy in Triumph of the Optimists . . . . The evidence produced by Mr. Dimson and his colleagues is striking, [and]. . . these issues are more than just academic. . . . A provocative lesson., By far the most important investment book in years. . . .It is the best and most complete source of data yet available. . . . If you spend an hour with it and don't learn anything worth the price then you're truly lousy at learning about markets. . . Right now, buying this book makes more sense than buying stocks., Connoisseurs of financial history will find plenty to enjoy in Triumph of the Optimists . . . . The evidence produced by Mr. Dimson and his colleagues is striking, [and]. . . these issues are more than just academic. . . . A provocative lesson. -- Matthew Lynn, Financial Times, Connoisseurs of financial history will find plenty to enjoy inTriumph of the Optimists. . . . The evidence produced by Mr. Dimson and his colleagues is striking, [and]. . . these issues are more than just academic. . . . A provocative lesson. -- Matthew Lynn, Financial Times, "By far the most important investment book in years. . . .It is the best and most complete source of data yet available. . . . If you spend an hour with it and don't learn anything worth the price then you're truly lousy at learning about markets. . . Right now, buying this book makes more sense than buying stocks." --Ken Fisher, Bloomberg Money, "A model of how investor research should be carried out. . . . Like most great books, Triumph of the Optimists has us saying 'Wow!' and 'Unbelievable!' with startling regularity. . . . This is a book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf." --Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner, "Money" columnists, msn.com, "Our favorite book on global stock market performance. . . . [It] epitomizes outstanding investment research. . . . Unless intelligent life is discovered on another planet and a stock market is found to have been operating there for some centuries, it is unlikely that much new data can be brought to bear on the issue of long-run stock returns. Triumph of the Optimists may well be the last word on the subject for some time to come."-- Active Trader magazine, At the very least, this [book] suggests that the recent blind adherence to the cult of the equity needs to be questioned and that the strategic weighting of bonds in institutional portfolios should be increased., A model of how investor research should be carried out. . . . Like most great books,Triumph of the Optimistshas us saying 'Wow!' and 'Unbelievable!' with startling regularity. . . . This is a book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf., Connoisseurs of financial history will find plenty to enjoy inTriumph of the Optimists. . . . The evidence produced by Mr. Dimson and his colleagues is striking, [and]. . . these issues are more than just academic. . . . A provocative lesson., A model of how investor research should be carried out. . . . Like most great books, Triumph of the Optimists has us saying 'Wow!' and 'Unbelievable!' with startling regularity. . . . This is a book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf., "At the very least, this [book] suggests that the recent blind adherence to the cult of the equity needs to be questioned and that the strategic weighting of bonds in institutional portfolios should be increased." --Philip Coggan, Financial Times, Our favorite book on global stock market performance. . . . [It] epitomizes outstanding investment research. . . . Unless intelligent life is discovered on another planet and a stock market is found to have been operating there for some centuries, it is unlikely that much new data can be brought to bear on the issue of long-run stock returns.Triumph of the Optimistsmay well be the last word on the subject for some time to come. -- Active Trader magazine, "Connoisseurs of financial history will find plenty to enjoy in Triumph of the Optimists . . . . The evidence produced by Mr. Dimson and his colleagues is striking, [and]. . . these issues are more than just academic. . . . A provocative lesson."-- Matthew Lynn, Financial Times, "Our favorite book on global stock market performance. . . . [It] epitomizes outstanding investment research. . . . Unless intelligent life is discovered on another planet and a stock market is found to have been operating there for some centuries, it is unlikely that much new data can be brought to bear on the issue of long-run stock returns. Triumph of the Optimists may well be the last word on the subject for some time to come." -- Active Trader magazine

Illustrated

Yes

Table Of Content

Preface xiPart One: 101 years of global investment returns 1Chapter 1 Introduction and overview 3 1.1 Need for an international perspective 3 1.2 The historical record 5 1.3 Inside the markets 7 1.4 The equity premium 8 1.5 Sixteen countries, one world 10Chapter 2 World markets: today and yesterday 11 2.1 The world's stock markets today 11 2.2 The world's bond markets today 14 2.3 Why stock and bond markets matter 18 2.4 The world's markets yesterday 19 2.5 The US and UK stock markets: 1900 versus 2000 23 2.6 Industry composition: 1900 versus 2000 23 2.7 Stock market concentration 28 2.8 Summary 32Chapter 3 Measuring long-term returns 34 3.1 Good indexes and bad 34 3.2 Index design: a case study 36 3.3 Dividends, coverage, and weightings 38 3.4 Easy-data bias in international indexes 40 3.5 Measuring inflation and fixed-income returns 43 3.6 Summary 44Chapter 4 International capital market history 45 4.1 The US record 45 4.2 The UK record 48 4.3 Stock market returns around the world 50 4.4 Equities compared with bonds and bills 51 4.5 Investment risk and the distribution of annual returns 54 4.6 Risk, diversification, and market risk 56 4.7 Risk comparisons across asset classes and countries 59 4.8 Summary 61Chapter 5 Inflation, interest rates, and bill returns 63 5.1 Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom 63 5.2 Inflation around the world 65 5.3 US treasury bills and real interest rates 68 5.4 Real interest rates around the world 71 5.5 Summary 72Chapter 6 Bond returns 74 6.1 US and UK bond returns 74 6.2 Bond returns around the world 79 6.3 Bond maturity premia 81 6.4 Inflation-indexed bonds and the real term premium 84 6.5 Corporate bonds and the default risk premium 87 6.6 Summary 89Chapter 7 Exchange rates and common-currency returns 91 7.1 Long-run exchange rate behavior 91 7.2 The international monetary system 93 7.3 Long-run purchasing power parity 95 7.4 Deviations from purchasing power parity 96 7.5 Volatility of exchange rates 98 7.6 Common-currency returns on bonds and equities 100 7.7 Summary 103Chapter 8 International investment 105 8.1 Local market versus currency risk 105 8.2 A twentieth century world index for equities and bonds 108 8.3 Ex post benefits from holding the world index 111 8.4 Correlations between countries 114 8.5 Prospective gains from international diversification 117 8.6 Home bias and constraints on international investment 120 8.7 Summary 123Chapter 9 Size effects and seasonality in stock returns 124 9.1 The size effect in the United States 124 9.2 The size effect in the United Kingdom 126 9.3 The size effect around the world 129 9.4 The reversal of the size premium 131 9.5 Seasonality and size 135 9.6 Summary 138Chapter 10 Value and growth in stock returns 139 10.1 Value versus growth in the United States 139 10.2 Value and growth investing in the United Kingdom 142 10.3 The international evidence 145 10.4 Summary 148Chapter 11 Equity dividends 149 11.1 The impact of income 149 11.2 US and UK dividend growth 152 11.3 Dividend growth around the world 154 11.4 Dividend growth, GDP growth, and real equity returns 155 11.5 Dividend yields around the world and over time 157 11.6 Disappearing dividends 158 11.7 Summary 161Chapter 12 The equity risk premium 163 12.1 US risk premia relative to bills 163 12.2 Worldwide risk premia relative to bills 166 12.3 US risk premia relative to bonds 169 12.4 Worldwide risk premia relative to bonds 171 12.5 Summary 173Chapter 13 The prospective risk premium 176 13.1 Why the risk premium matters 177 13.2 How big should the risk premium be? 179 13.3 Measuring the premium 181 13.4 Arithmetic and geometric premia 183 13.5 The changing consensus 185 13.6 History as a guide t

Synopsis

Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. The authors of this book extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy. Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful. The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium--the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa. Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals, financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come., Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamed that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9 percent per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. The authors of this book extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies, and inflation spanning sixteen countries from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy. Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, because of a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful.The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium - the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, The Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa. Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals, financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come., "Brilliant."-- Time "By far the most important investment book in years."-- Bloomberg Money "A book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf."--MSN.com An essential and authoritative account of a century of investment returns in sixteen countries--the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. In Triumph of the Optimists , renowned investment authorities Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies, and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy. Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful. The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium--the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa. Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals, financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come., Presents a comprehensive analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This book also provides evidence on the long-term equity risk premium - the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks.

LC Classification Number

HG4516.D5 2002

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