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THE AGE OF DELEVERAGING [9780470596364
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Standort: Portland, Oregon, USA
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eBay-Artikelnr.:274032935038
Artikelmerkmale
- Artikelzustand
- ISBN
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Über dieses Produkt
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John
ISBN-10
0470596368
ISBN-13
9780470596364
eBay Product ID (ePID)
102839528
Product Key Features
Book Title
Age of Deleveraging : Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation
Number of Pages
528 Pages
Language
English
Publication Year
2010
Topic
Finance / General, Investments & Securities / Analysis & Trading Strategies, Economic Conditions, Forecasting
Illustrator
Yes
Genre
Business & Economics
Format
Hardcover
Dimensions
Item Height
1.6 in
Item Weight
26.8 Oz
Item Length
9.1 in
Item Width
6.3 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Trade
LCCN
2010-021341
TitleLeading
The
Dewey Edition
22
Reviews
'[a] warning against complacency' ( Financial Times Weekend, January 2011). '…excellent book…Shilling lists the ten investment ideas to buy into in a deflating, low-growth Anglo-Saxon world.' (Investment Week.co.uk, February 2011). 'Anyone looking for an inflationary resolution to this global mess should ponder the wisdom of Shilling's reasoning and the many decades of experience and accurate forecasting' Market Oracle
Dewey Decimal
332.6
Table Of Content
Foreword viii Acknowledgments xii Introduction xiv Delveraging, especially of the global financial and U.S.consumer sectors, will dominate the worldwide economy for years.It''s centered on five traumas so far. Three more possibilitiesloom. Chapter 1 Spotting Bubbles 1 Economic and financial bubbles are time-honored and part ofimmutable human nature. I love to be among the few to spot them andpredict their demise. They follow a welldefined pattern as theyexpand and burst. Chapter 2 Making Great Calls 29 They involve important events that the consensus doesn''tforesee and unfold for the stated reasons. Here are five I''ve made:the 1969-1970 recession, the early 1970s inventory bubble and1973-1975 recession, disinflation starting in the early1980s, the demise of Japan''s 1980s bubble, and the dot-com blow-offin 2000. Chapter 3 The Housing Bubble (Great Call 6) 53 Why I saw it coming in the early 2000s, how I forecast itsdemise and the way I personally profited. Chapter 4 The Financial Bubble (Great Call 7) 95 The great disconnect between the financial and real worldsstarted three decades ago and accelerated in the 2000s. Soaringfinancial leverage, especially in the global financial and U.S.consumer sectors, made collapse inevitable. Chapter 5 The Results of Denial 123 The 2007-2009 recession and financial crisis started inearly 2007 with the subprime mortgage collapse, spread to WallStreet at mid-year, then moved to U.S. consumer retrenchment andglobal recession in late 2008. Investors thought every crisis wasthe last, and governments had no foresight or master plans. Chapter 6 Slow Growth Ahead 159 Global slow growth in the next decade will result from U.S.consumer retrenchment, financial deleveraging, increased governmentregulation and involvement in major economies, low commodity pricesand the shift by advanced lands to fiscal restraint. Chapter 7 No Help from Anywhere 225 Four more reasons for slow global growth: Risingprotectionism, continuing U.S. housing weakness, deflation and weakstate and local government spending. Chapter 8 Chronic Worldwide Deflation 273 Deflation comes in seven varieties, but is fundamentallydriven by supply exceeding demand. Productivitysaturated new techand globalization will drive the good deflation of excess supplywhile slow economic growth introduces the bad deflation ofdeficient demand. As the two combine, I look for chronic pricedeclines of 2 to 3 percent annually. Chapter 9 Monetary and Fiscal Excesses 311 The inflation-wary Fed will probably withdraw excessreserves if inflation looms. Federal deficits over $ 1trillion will persist as weak economic growth forces government jobcreation and helps push those dependent on government to two-thirdsof the population. Still, government stimuli will continue to onlyreplace private sector weakness at best. Chapter 10 The Outlook for Stocks 339 Corporate earnings grow with GDP in the long run. With slowgrowth and deflation in prospect as well as falling P/Es, stockappreciation will be muted and below dividend yields. Historyfavors market timing over buy and hold, even more so in thisenvironment. Chapter 11 Twelve Investments to Sell or Avoid 363 Big-ticket consumer purchases, consumer lenders,conventional home builders, collectibles, banks, junk securities,flailing companies, low tech equipment producers, commercial realestate, commodities, Chinese and other developing country stock andbonds, and Japanese securities. Chapter 12 Ten Investments to Buy 425 Treasury bonds, dividend-payers, consumer staples, smallluxuries, the dollar, asset managers and advisers, factorybuilthouses and rental apartments, health care companies,productivity-enhancers and North American energy. About the Author 493 Index 499
Synopsis
Top economist Gary Shilling shows you how to prosper in the slow-growing and deflationary times that lie ahead While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author Gary Shilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that the global economy is going through a long period of de-leveraging and weak growth, which makes deflation far more likely and a far greater threat to investors than inflation. Shilling explains in clear language and compelling logic why the world economy will struggle for several more years and what investors can do to protect and grow their wealth in the difficult times ahead. The investment strategies that worked for last 25 years will not work in the next 10 years. Shilling advises readers to avoid broad exposure to stocks, real estate, and commodities and to focus on high-quality bonds, high-dividend stocks, and consumer staple and food stocks. Written by one of today's best forecasters of economic trends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's top economist Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how to cope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timely guide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to be prepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-not inflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult times ahead., Praise for The Age of Deleveraging "Gary Shilling brilliantly exposes the delusions of the bullish consensus and the deadly dangers of debt accumulation, deflation, deleveraging, debt defaults, and double-dip and near-depression risks. He is one of the sharpest thinkers on economic issues and their market implications. This is a must-read book for all." Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University "Watch as the world Gary paints in this book comes to pass. And it is a very different world than the usual suspects want you to see. Ignore Gary at the peril of your investment portfolio. So instead of buying their funds, why not read Gary and let him show you alternatives that will work in a world of deleveraging, deflation, and slower growth." John Mauldin , President, Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA), a three-time N.Y. Times bestselling author, and editor of Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter "Gary Shilling is rarer than a black swan; he's an economist who foresaw deflation. While central bankers were promising endless prosperity through managed inflation and influential economists were celebrating the 'New Economy,' Gary's followers were holding treasury bonds and preparing for the big shift. Shilling has predicted the 'impossible' several times in his career, so his colleagues should no longer be surprised when he turns out to be right." Robert R. Prechter Jr. , author of Conquer the Crash "This highly readable book, written by an accomplished economist, is certainly worth your attention. I have known Gary since 1973 and have always been impressed by his ability to recognize long-term trends. The Age of Deleveraging is the book you should definitely read." Dr. Marc Faber , Marc Faber Limited "Lots of unconventional insights of analyses. But remember the acid test of advice: those who followed Gary's not-always-popular advice during these turbulent times made money. This man is an original and well worth listening to." Steve Forbes , President and Chief Executive Officer, Forbes, and Editor in Chief, Forbes magazine, While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, Gary Shilling argues they should be really preparing for the opposite: an extended period of falling prices., Top economist Gary Shilling shows you how to prosper in theslow-growing and deflationary times that lie ahead While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author GaryShilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that theglobal economy is going through a long period of de-leveraging andweak growth, which makes deflation far more likely and a fargreater threat to investors than inflation. Shilling explains inclear language and compelling logic why the world economy willstruggle for several more years and what investors can do toprotect and grow their wealth in the difficult times ahead. Theinvestment strategies that worked for last 25 years will not workin the next 10 years. Shilling advises readers to avoid broadexposure to stocks, real estate, and commodities and to focus onhigh-quality bonds, high-dividend stocks, and consumer staple andfood stocks. Written by one of today's best forecasters of economictrends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's topeconomist Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how tocope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right aboutmajor economic trends since he began forecasting in the early1980s Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timelyguide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to beprepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-notinflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult timesahead.
LC Classification Number
HG4910.S458 2010
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