Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

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ISBN
9780231199957
Kategorie

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Product Identifiers

Publisher
Columbia University Press
ISBN-10
0231199953
ISBN-13
9780231199957
eBay Product ID (ePID)
27057236132

Product Key Features

Number of Pages
368 Pages
Language
English
Publication Name
Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
Publication Year
2022
Subject
Philosophy & Social Aspects, History & Philosophy, Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis
Type
Textbook
Author
Aubrey Clayton
Subject Area
Mathematics, Science
Format
Trade Paperback

Dimensions

Item Height
0.1 in
Item Weight
20.6 Oz
Item Length
0.9 in
Item Width
0.6 in

Additional Product Features

Intended Audience
Trade
Dewey Edition
23
Reviews
Thrilling...The specialists and laymen alike will judge the value of the contents of the book, in the very affirmative., Bernoulli's Fallacy will be of use to readers of any mathematical background who wish to understand not only the math but also the motivations behind the rising Bayesian wave. It is a vivid, nontechnical look at the bees in the contemporary statistician's bonnet., A timely story, well-told. It makes a compelling case for a shake-up in the world of statistics that may just be strident enough to spark change., As well-written as it is fascinating, and for my money is the best single-volume work describing and contributing to the debates in modern statistics on the shelves today. It can be profitably read by those with no background in the field, but will surely contain new ideas for experts as well. Having read the book, I myself will never think about statistics the same way., This story of the 'statistics wars' is gripping, and Clayton is an excellent writer. He argues that scientists have been doing statistics all wrong, a case that should have profound ramifications for medicine, biology, psychology, the social sciences, and other empirical disciplines. Few books accessible to a broad audience lay out the Bayesian case so clearly., The book is highly accessible. . . . Even readers who ultimately disagree with the author's position will still benefit from reading this text., I like it! Anything that gets people thinking about the uses and abuses of statistics is important and Clayton's book does just this. Fifty years ago E. T. Jaynes opened my eyes to the importance of Bayesian ideas in the real world and this readable account brings these ideas up to date.
Illustrated
Yes
Dewey Decimal
519.2
Table Of Content
Preface Acknowledgments Introduction 1. What Is Probability? 2. The Titular Fallacy 3. Adolphe Quetelet's Bell Curve Bridge 4. The Frequentist Jihad 5. The Quote-Unquote Logic of Orthodox Statistics 6. The Replication Crisis/Opportunity 7. The Way Out Notes Bibliography Index
Synopsis
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it., Aubrey Clayton traces the history of the flaw that underlies modern statistics, beginning with the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data--and how to fix it.
LC Classification Number
QA273.A35C53 2022

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